Assessment of the Feasibility and Potential Impact of IoT-Based Predictive Maintenance for HVAC Systems in Public Hospitals in Nigeria

Abstract

Effective heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) performance is critical to thermal comfort, operational efficiency and better performance of installed equipment in healthcare facilities. However, air-conditioning systems in many Nigerian public hospitals are managed using reactive maintenance practices, resulting in frequent breakdowns, energy waste, and service disruption. This study presents an engineering feasibility assessment of an Internet of Things (IoT)-based predictive maintenance framework for hospital HVAC systems using the National Hospital, Abuja, as a case study. A low-cost distributed monitoring architecture incorporating temperature, current, voltage, and humidity sensors interfaced with an ESP32 edge gateway was designed to enable real-time equipment condition monitoring and automated fault detection. Analytical models were developed to estimate system power consumption, sensor performance, and preventive maintenance thresholds for early fault identification. A cost–benefit analysis indicates that predictive monitoring could reduce HVAC downtime by approximately 25–35% and decrease energy consumption by 20–30%, with a projected payback period of less than two years. Stakeholder surveys (n = 284) further validated operational deficiencies and confirmed institutional readiness for technology-assisted maintenance. The results demonstrate that IoT-enabled predictive maintenance is technically feasible and economically viable for improving HVAC reliability and service delivery in resource-constrained public hospitals. The proposed framework provides a scalable pathway for modernizing healthcare facility management in Nigeria and similar contexts.